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Precious Metals
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Data Sources
Precious metals (XAU, XAG, XPT) via Pyth Network live feed. Base metals via Stooq futures. All prices in USD.
Global Mineral Production Map
low
medium
high
critical
MINERALS WATCHTOWER
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ALL
GOLD
SILVER
COPPER
PGM
BATTERY
RARE EARTH
SUPPLY & SECTOR
⚠ 6 ACTIVE
Supply Risk
Sector ETFs
China REE Export Controls
China
ACTIVE
CRITICAL
Gallium
Germanium
Graphite
Rare Earths
China controls ~85% of REE processing. Export licence regime introduced 2023 for gallium, germanium, graphite.
⚡ Immediate upstream cost pressure
DRC Political Instability
Congo (DRC)
ACTIVE
HIGH
Cobalt
DRC produces ~70% of global cobalt. Artisanal mining risks, M23 rebel activity in eastern provinces.
↑ Cobalt supply premium ~$2/lb
Russia Palladium Supply
Russia
ACTIVE
HIGH
Palladium
Nickel
Platinum
Norilsk Nickel = ~40% of global palladium. G7 sanctions created logistical complexity, higher lease rates.
↑ Physical tightness in spot market
South Africa Load Shedding
South Africa
ELEVATED
MEDIUM
Platinum
Palladium
Rhodium
Eskom power grid failures (load shedding stages 4–6) force South African PGM mines to curtail output. SA = 85% of global Pt.
↑ Mine output -5% to -8% vs plan
Chile Copper Royalty Risk
Chile
ELEVATED
MEDIUM
Copper
Lithium
New mining royalty legislation and Codelco operational issues. Chile = ~27% of global copper. Lithium nationalisation risk.
⚠ Long-term supply growth risk
Indonesia Nickel Export Ban
Indonesia
ACTIVE
MEDIUM
Nickel
Indonesia banned raw nickel ore exports (2020, extended). Forces downstream processing investment. Reshaping LME supply chain.
⚡ LME nickel premium restructured
⬡ MINERALS WATCHTOWER — Real-time precious & base metals · 🟡 GOLD: Central bank buying >1,000t/year — structural floor · 🔴 CHINA: REE export controls — gallium, germanium active since 2023 · 🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA: PGM output curtailed by load shedding · 🇷🇺 RUSSIA: Palladium (40% global) under G7 sanctions pressure · 🇨🇩 DRC: Cobalt (70% global) exposed to political instability ⬡ MINERALS WATCHTOWER — Real-time precious & base metals · 🟡 GOLD: Central bank buying >1,000t/year — structural floor · 🔴 CHINA: REE export controls — gallium, germanium active since 2023 · 🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA: PGM output curtailed by load shedding · 🇷🇺 RUSSIA: Palladium (40% global) under G7 sanctions pressure · 🇨🇩 DRC: Cobalt (70% global) exposed to political instability
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Global Mineral Production Map
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medium
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critical
MARKET METRICS
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GOLD / SILVER RATIO
—
—
PLATINUM / PALLADIUM
—
—
PLATINUM / GOLD
—
—
COPPER (DR. COPPER)
—
—
REAL RATE PROXY
~1.8%
Bearish gold · Fed still restrictive
CENTRAL BANK BUYING
>1,000t/yr
Structural floor — EM diversification
RUSSIA PALLADIUM
~40% supply
Sanctions risk — ongoing disruption
GOLD OVX (VOL)
~16
Calm · Options premium low
Key Events
FOMC
20d
Fed Rate Decision
COT
5h 20m
CFTC Commitment of Traders
Drivers
Real rates: still positive
CB buying: structural
Russia Pd: sanctions risk
China: REE export curbs
EV: PGM demand shift
AI SIGNALS
· PABLO INTEL ANALYSIS
REFRESH
GENERATING ANALYSIS…
Fetching live data · Running AI model
SUPPLY & SECTOR
⚠ 6 ACTIVE
Supply Risk
Sector ETFs
China REE Export Controls
China
ACTIVE
CRITICAL
Gallium
Germanium
Graphite
Rare Earths
China controls ~85% of REE processing. Export licence regime introduced 2023 for gallium, germanium, graphite.
⚡ Immediate upstream cost pressure
DRC Political Instability
Congo (DRC)
ACTIVE
HIGH
Cobalt
DRC produces ~70% of global cobalt. Artisanal mining risks, M23 rebel activity in eastern provinces.
↑ Cobalt supply premium ~$2/lb
Russia Palladium Supply
Russia
ACTIVE
HIGH
Palladium
Nickel
Platinum
Norilsk Nickel = ~40% of global palladium. G7 sanctions created logistical complexity, higher lease rates.
↑ Physical tightness in spot market
South Africa Load Shedding
South Africa
ELEVATED
MEDIUM
Platinum
Palladium
Rhodium
Eskom power grid failures (load shedding stages 4–6) force South African PGM mines to curtail output. SA = 85% of global Pt.
↑ Mine output -5% to -8% vs plan
Chile Copper Royalty Risk
Chile
ELEVATED
MEDIUM
Copper
Lithium
New mining royalty legislation and Codelco operational issues. Chile = ~27% of global copper. Lithium nationalisation risk.
⚠ Long-term supply growth risk
Indonesia Nickel Export Ban
Indonesia
ACTIVE
MEDIUM
Nickel
Indonesia banned raw nickel ore exports (2020, extended). Forces downstream processing investment. Reshaping LME supply chain.
⚡ LME nickel premium restructured
LIVE
⬡ MINERALS WATCHTOWER — Real-time precious & base metals intelligence · 🟡 GOLD: Central bank buying >1,000t/year provides structural floor · ⚪ SILVER: Gold/silver ratio historically elevated — potential mean reversion · 🔴 CHINA: REE export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite active since 2023 · 🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA: PGM output curtailed by Eskom load shedding (Stage 4–6) · 🇷🇺 RUSSIA: Palladium supply (40% global) under G7 sanctions pressure · 🇨🇩 DRC: Cobalt supply (70% global) exposed to political instability · 🔋 EV TRANSITION: Shifting auto catalyst demand — bearish Pd, bullish Li · 🇮🇩 INDONESIA: Nickel export ban reshaping LME supply chain · 📊 CFTC COT REPORT: Fridays 15:30 UTC — institutional positioning signal · 🇨🇱 CHILE: Copper royalty legislation risk — 27% of world supply · ⚛️ URANIUM: Kazatomprom controls 45% of global production · ⬡ MINERALS WATCHTOWER — Real-time precious & base metals intelligence · 🟡 GOLD: Central bank buying >1,000t/year provides structural floor · ⚪ SILVER: Gold/silver ratio historically elevated — potential mean reversion · 🔴 CHINA: REE export controls on gallium, germanium, graphite active since 2023 · 🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA: PGM output curtailed by Eskom load shedding (Stage 4–6) · 🇷🇺 RUSSIA: Palladium supply (40% global) under G7 sanctions pressure · 🇨🇩 DRC: Cobalt supply (70% global) exposed to political instability · 🔋 EV TRANSITION: Shifting auto catalyst demand — bearish Pd, bullish Li · 🇮🇩 INDONESIA: Nickel export ban reshaping LME supply chain · 📊 CFTC COT REPORT: Fridays 15:30 UTC — institutional positioning signal · 🇨🇱 CHILE: Copper royalty legislation risk — 27% of world supply · ⚛️ URANIUM: Kazatomprom controls 45% of global production
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